Hawaii is actually a legit top 25 team according to the Strength Power Rating, which puts them at #25. Tulsa, on the other hand, is only #58. Accordingly, the vast majority of game-comparisons are won by the Warriors. Against the spread, Hawaii still wins the majority. Both these formulas grant the Warriors the standard home field advantage.
Both teams have great offenses and not-as-great defenses. Using raw scoring figures, Hawaii and Tulsa both have top 10 offenses, #9 and #10 in the nation in scoring average. Once corrected for their level of opposition—mostly from the WAC and C-USA respectively—they fall to #16 and #28. Still very good, but not among the best.
On defense Hawaii is a respectable #47 while Tulsa ranks #89, and that's the big difference here. Add in home field advantage for the Warriors and it's a two touchdown spread, and lots of scoring predicted.
Yardage analysis: Hawaii 51, Tulsa 35 per attempt: Hawaii 45, Tulsa 27
In yardage differential—whether teams outgain their opponents or not—Hawaii ranks 16th and Tulsa 57th, very similar to their rankings by score margin. Both rank high in total offense (Hawaii 12th, Tulsa 13th) but again rank a lot worse on defense (47th, 110th). The outcome—the estimated score based on yardage—is about the same as the Strength Power Rating's estimate, with more points scored because the offenses rank a bit higher. The per-attempt projection is even a bit closer to the power ratings' tally.
The per-game yardage projection (first score set above) predicts nearly 1,000 yards of total offense between the two teams, roughly 550 by Hawaii and 450 by Tulsa.
Yardage + turnovers projection: Hawaii 53, Tulsa 33
Normally Tulsa gets a small boost due to turnovers as they rank #25 in turnover margin, but Hawaii ranks #5 in the nation (adjusted). So the odds are Hawaii comes out a bit ahead in turnovers (about 3 to 2), giving them around another 4 point advantage to add to their projected margin.
When Hawaii has the ball
Hawaii rushing offense: #112 Tulsa rushing defense: #73
Hawaii is not a running team, that much is clear. Greg McMackin has carried on June Jones legacy by keeping the offense almost completely pass-based. Despite this, Hawaii has a 1,000 yard rusher in Alex Green, who also has 17 touchdowns. That accounts for almost all their net ground yardage and it was over 13 games, but he averages a guady 8.8 yards per carry. Indeed, the Warriors are 39th in adjusted per-carry rushing offense. But there's a lot of the "surprise factor" involved here since they pass so much. Indeed, the Warriors have run fewer running plays than any other I-A team, and that alone is enough to hold them to about 100 ground yards for the game. Against Tulsa's mediocre defense, though, more could be available if they need a break from the pass.
Hawaii passing offense: #1 Tulsa passing defense: #119 per att: #116
Hawaii interceptions thrown ranking: #59 Tulsa interceptions picked ranking: #15
Hawaii quarterback protection rank: #97 Tulsa pass rush rank: #47
But the pass is Hawaii's bread, butter, and serving China. They finished #1 in adjusted and raw passing yards per game, with Bryant Moniz throwing for 4,629 yards and 36 TDs. Receivers Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares both topped 1,000 yards and had 27 of the TDs. This is bad news for Tulsa, who has one of the worst passing defenses in the nation. Expect about 450 passing yards from Hawaii.
